The size of the U.S. restaurant industry contracted this past fall as the total number of commercial foodservice locations continued to erode, according to a fall 2010 restaurant census conducted by The NPD Group.
The Chicago-based research firm said the total number of domestic restaurants fell about 1 percent, or by 5,551 outlets, to 579,102 locations in the fall of 2010 compared with the fall of 2009. By comparison, The NPD Group’s ReCount data found the number of restaurants declined about 0.3 percent, or by 1,652 units, in the fall of 2009 versus 2008.
Independent restaurants were the hardest hit in the commercial sector, with the number of outlets falling by about 2 percent, or 2,122 restaurants, to 311,694 compared with a year ago. The number of chain units was about flat during this past fall, holding about steady at 267,408 outlets.
“These past two years have been particularly tough for independents, which don’t have the resources to compete with the chains,” said Greg Starzynski, NPD’s director, product development-foodservice. “Over the past few years we’ve lost several thousand independent restaurants.”
The decline in the number of U.S. restaurants is expected to continue in 2011, said an analyst from Barclays Capital last week, noting the industry as it stands remains overbuilt. Jeffrey Bernstein, a Barclays securities analyst projects a decline in total unit count of between 0.5 percent and 1 percent in 2011.
However, Bernstein said that projected decline would not necessarily constitute a negative for the industry. “We view such contraction favorably as a means of helping the industry ease the historical (and most recently more severe) supply/demand imbalance,” he wrote.
According to NPD, the number of quick-service restaurants declined about 1 percent, or 2,122 outlets, to 305,844 locations in the fall of 2010, compared with the fall of 2009. The number of full-service restaurants, which NPD said comprises casual dining, family dining and fine dining places, also fell about 1 percent, or 3,429 locations, to 273,258.
According to The NPD Group’s CREST, which follows consumer usage of commercial and noncommercial foodservice locations, restaurant traffic has been falling since January 2009. More recently, though, visit declines have been softening. Traffic declined by 1 percent for the year ended November 2010, compared with a year ago. That is an improvement over the 3-percent declines in visits for the period ended November 2009 compared with the prior year.
Contact Paul Frumkin at [email protected].