At first glance, the Technomic Top 500 appears to show healthy growth for the biggest restaurant brands in the U.S. Sales grew by 7.8% to a robust $424 billion, while unit counts grew by 1.8% to more than 233,000 locations — the highest rate of new location growth since 2016, according to Technomic.
Look a bit deeper, however, and you’ll spot signs of trouble for the restaurant industry. The 7.8% sales growth is only slightly higher than the 7.1% average increase in consumer prices, illustrating an ongoing trend that carried over from 2022: sales increasing not from traffic so much as inflation-induced price increases. Indeed, 2023 performance — and, subsequently, 2024’s first quarter — suggest that the industry has reached a tipping point where consumers are starting to pull back on discretionary spending and trade down to more value-oriented meal options.
Just look at the difference in limited-service and full-service restaurants for a warning sign that consumers are adapting their behaviors because of the economy. Limited-service sales growth on the Technomic Top 500 outpaced full-service in 2023 by more than 3 percentage points, 8.5% versus 5%. The difference is even wider between fast casual (11.2% sales growth) and casual (4.7%), offering echoes of the Great Recession, when consumers swapped sit-down meal occasions for more affordable yet high-quality fast-casual options.
There are certainly signs of life throughout the Top 500, particularly among emerging fast-casual chains. The types of brands that marked 2023 as a “W” — from CAVA to Sweetgreen, Dutch Bros to 7 Brew, KPOT to HTeaO — largely featured fast service and off-premises flexibility, plus unique (often global) dishes that were not only seen as a value but also, in many cases, as an affordable indulgence.
For complete access to the Top 500 courtesy of Technomic’s Ignite Company data, click here.
- The 50 biggest restaurant chains in America
- Restaurants ranked No. 100 – No. 51
- Restaurants ranked No. 150 – No. 101
- Restaurants ranked No. 200 – No. 15
- Restaurants ranked No. 250 – No. 201
- Unit closures, rise of fast-casual restaurant chains pressure full-service sales
- Smaller chains dominate in unit growth
- A rising tide lifts (some) boats
- Starbucks stalls as coffee competition heats up
- Beverage concepts boom as budget-minded customers look to indulge
- Is there a dessert-restaurant bubble?
- Chick-fil-A’s momentum continued in 2023 — and there’s no end in sight
- Casual-dining segment hits the skids
- Inflation, unit expansion boost Top 500 sales growth in 2023
- Pizza players battle for share in a stagnant segment
- The restaurant movers and shakers of 2023
- Globally influenced restaurants’ growth reflects a growing demand
- Salad concepts freshen up the Top 500
- 7 Brew leapfrogs 295 spots in the Top 500 restaurant rankings
- How changing demographics are influencing the growth of some restaurant brands
- With improved systems in place, Cheba Hut is posed for rapid growth
- Bubbakoo’s Burritos continues expansion into the Midwest
- Hopdoddy is the emerging burger brand to beat
- Is Marco’s the pizza chain to watch?
- Hawkers Asian Street Food brews success with unique menu
- Flower Child blossoms in the fast-casual space
- Familiarity and discipline drove Mo’Bettahs’ growth
- PJ’s Coffee grows by providing a taste of New Orleans
- Eggs Up Grill’s growth drivers: Accessible food and franchisees who started as guests
For more insights on the Technomic Top 500, presented by Nation’s Restaurant News in partnership with Technomic, bookmark this page and return throughout the month of June as we roll out the full list of the 500 biggest chains in America, plus editorial analysis on the biggest storylines ripped from the data. You’ll receive unparalleled access to Top 500 data.
