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Analyst: More restaurant buyouts ahead

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Ludington said in a report Wednesday that he is confident the market is ripe for deep-pocketed private-equity companies to swoop in on moderately priced restaurant entities.On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

EARLIER: Analysts name next restaurant buyoutsOn the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

So far in 2010, private equity deals have been announced for Rubio’s, Dave & Buster’s, CKE Restaurants, Papa Murphy’s International, Fuddruckers, Wingstop Restaurants and On the Border. Other companies that have either begun to explore corporate options or already have looked at sale offers include California Pizza Kitchen, Benihana, Kona Grill and Hooter’s of America.On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Ludington picked three more to add to the mix: Bob Evans Restaurants Inc.; Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.; and Ruby Tuesday Inc.On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Highlights from his research:On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Bob EvansOn the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Estimated purchase price: $37.66 per share, or $1.14 billion On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

May 11 closing stock price: $29.63On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Expectations: Ludington said that Bob Evans’ “potential for further margin expansion,” is good, as industry same-store sales trends improve, and the family-dining chain continues its emphasis on improved operations and purchasing costs.On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Potential risks: Ludington noted overall trends in consumer spending, the unknown results of expansion plans for Bob Evans and sister concept Mimi’s Cafe into new markets, as well as commodity exposure in the beef market.On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Estimated purchase price: $30.88 per share, or $482 millionOn the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

May 11 closing stock price: $25.73 On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Expectations: Ludington called Red Robin “one of the most attractive names on our list for private equity interest.”On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

The casual-dining company most recently struck a deal with investors to begin a search for a new chief executive after a 2009 that included declines in profit and sales. http://www.nrn.com/article.aspx?id=380206On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

 On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Potential risks: Consumer spending; performance in new markets; commodity exposure; and failure to deliver return on investment from increased advertising spending in 2010.On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Ruby TuesdayOn the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Purchase price: $13.80 per share, or $874 millionOn the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

May 11 closing stock price: $10.80On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Expectations: Ludington said Ruby Tuesday has outperformed expectations when it comes to same-store sales. He also noted the chance for higher margins compared with the rest of casual dining.On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Potential risks: Consumer spending; reception of the concept in new markets; and commodity exposure.On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Ludington’s analysis is presented based on a number of standard assumptions:On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

  • Each transition would take place immediately with an exit at the end of 2013.
  • A trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization multiple of 8.5 for the purchase price now, as well as the exit price.
  • A 20-percent internal rate of return over that four-year period.
  • 3.5 times leverage at the time of transaction with a 6-percent interest rate for bank debt and an 8-percent interest rate for subordinated debt.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

Contact Mike Dempsey at [email protected]. On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

On the heels of the buyout news from Rubio’s Restaurants Inc., Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Ludington has offered up three possibly tantalizing meals for the next hungry private-equity firm.

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