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First looks at 2008 are not pretty as operators lower EPS forecasts

First looks at 2008 are not pretty as operators lower EPS forecasts

DANA POINT CALIF —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

(To view this week's print financial pages and accompanying charts, click here) —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

Jamba Juice president and chief executive Paul Clayton epitomized the mood as he spoke to an audience at the consumer-sector-focused ICR XChange in Dana Point about Jamba’s slumping performance, especially in California. —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

“What a difference a year makes,” he said. “Last year when I presented here it was the first conference after we went public, and there was lots of excitement. Today, obviously the stock price has gone in the wrong direction. Our performance is under a lot of scrutiny.” —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

Jamba Inc., the San Francisco-based parent to 650-unit Jamba Juice, most recently posted a 3.3-percent drop in same-store sales at corporate units for the quarter ended Jan. 1. Its stock price has lost about 80 percent of its value since last summer. —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

Yet, Clayton added, “I’m very, very confident we will get through these economic headwinds.” —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

California Pizza Kitchen Inc., operator or franchisor of about 230 restaurants, watched its stock tumble on news it had slashed its per-share earnings outlook for 2008 by as much as 36 percent because continuing macroeconomic challenges were likely to result in negative to flat same-store sales for the year. Annual earnings per share are now expected to total between 54 cents and 60 cents, down from prior estimates of 85 cents to 92 cents. —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

The news pushed CPK’s stock price down during trading to a new 52-week low of $9.32 per share Jan. 16, the day it announced its latest projections. —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

For its latest fourth quarter, the company also reduced earnings expectations, from previous projections of 22 cents to 23 cents per share, to 16 cents to 18 cents, mainly on slower same-store sales. —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

“We don’t have a silver ball on the consumer,” said CPK co-chair and chief executive Rick Rosenfield. “I have to offer a mea culpa; we try to be conservative, and we try to tell our investors where we’re at.” —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

He cautioned investors not to mistake same-store sales with performance. He cited a continued double-digit surge in revenues and profitability in most stores, even weaker ones in California, which have struggled against the state’s housing woes, pressures on the consumer and, like the rest of the nation, talk of a pending recession. —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

Ruth’s Chris Steak House Inc., parent to the 100-plus-unit steak-house chain, and Benihana Inc., parent to about 100 restaurants operating under three brands, both said they would not let the consumer headwinds halt their long-term strategies, which include investing in unit remodelings. —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

“We’re in this for the long run,” Benihana president Juan C. Garcia said. “We’re not in this month-to-month, and we have every intention of completing our goals.” —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

Benihana said it would finish its renovation project, which focuses on the older Benihana teppanyaki locations, by next year. —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

One of the few quick-service presenters, Carrols Restaurant Group Inc., the nation’s largest Burger King franchisee, said fast-food concepts that offer a focus on value are well-positioned to succeed in these difficult times. Carrols’ BK units posted a fourth-quarter same-store sales jump of 4.7 percent, helped by its value menu and late-night hours. —Humble pie was served plentifully last month as many publicly traded restaurant companies slashed earnings forecasts, predicted sagging same-store sales, and warned of continued pressures from commodity and labor costs during two major investor conferences here and in New York.

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