A later-than-usual Labor Day generated higher sales and traffic at casual-dining restaurants in September, according to the latest MillerPulse survey.
Same-store sales rose 3.6 percent at casual-dining restaurants during the month, 1.1 percentage points higher than quick-service restaurants. That was the first time in four years that dine-in concepts fared better than their fast-food cousins.
Casual-dining traffic rose 0.9 percent, again ahead of quick-service traffic of 0.6 percent.
Overall, restaurant industry sales increased 90 basis points, to 3.4 percent, while traffic for the month rose 1 percent, according to the index. The improvement follows an unexpectedly difficult month in August.
“It’s a nice little snapback,” said Larry Miller, cofounder of the survey. The later Labor Day pulled some sales from August into September, he said, especially at casual-dining restaurants. Average out the months, he said, and the results have been in line with the rest of the year.
Miller noted that casual dining started off the month with a very strong week, and since then “things have come back to earth.” That suggests the early sales improvement was a sign that consumers were going out more often on Labor Day weekend.
It also keeps at bay suggestions of a major industry slowdown toward the end of the year.
Restaurant sales growth has averaged around 3.5 percent for much of the year after an exceptionally strong January and February, brought on by low gas prices and warmer weather.
Traffic has been modestly weak for much of the year, however, and so consumers are willing to spend a bit more to eat out but they’re not going out with greater frequency.
Miller said the higher sales are not a function of higher menu prices. “Price increases have been pretty modest,” he said. “Consumers are opting in for the next appetizer or dessert or they’re adding onto the check. It’s not that restaurants are gouging the consumer today on price. The consumer is willing to pay.”
Miller said that restaurants would likely finish the year with same-store sales rising 3.3 percent, stronger than the 2.2-percent growth in 2014. Quick-service restaurants would likely finish the year with 3.5-percent growth, he said, while casual-dining concepts would grow 2.2 percent.
The current year is turning out to be more positive than Miller initially forecast. “It’s a lot better than I would have expected,” he said.
But, he added, “All consumer surveys show they’re willing to spend more, and they did. They most certainly followed through with what they said.”
Contact Jonathan Maze at [email protected].
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