Outlook 2009

THE YEAR AHEAD IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER tough one for the restaurant industry as the U.S. recession continues to curtail consumer spending.

Operators, however, are a tenacious bunch. In Nation’s Restaurant News annual Outlook, savvy operators from across the country share both their expectations for 2009 and the strategic plans they are employing to spark sales, contain costs and position their operations for future growth.

In addition, data from the National Restaurant Association provides an industrywide sales overview as well as state-by-state projected growth rates covering employment, disposable income and population. Estimated state restaurant sales for 2008 and 2009 also are included. The Outlook overview starting on page 1 highlights results from an exclusive Nation’s Restaurant News survey revealing operators’ projections on commodity costs, sales projections and menu price increases. Altogether, the information included in the section provides an economic survival guide for 2009.

REGIONS RANKED BY 2009 PROJECTED RESTAURANT SALES

*Includes sales at eating places and managed-restaurant-services providers


		SALES ($ BILLIONS)*
1	SOUTHEAST	$106.19
2	MIDWEST	90.21
3	WEST	79.40
4	SOUTHWEST-MOUNTAIN	68.09
5	MID-ATLANTIC	67.77
6	NEW ENGLAND	23.44

REGIONS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN SALES, 2008 TO 2009 ** Real growth rates adjusted for the projected average 3.6 percent menu price inflationSOURCE: NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION/NATION’S RESTAURANT NEWS


		NOMINAL % CHG.	REAL % CHG.**
1	SOUTHWEST-MOUNTAIN	3.6%	0.0%
2	WEST	2.7	-0.9
3	SOUTHEAST	2.4	-1.2
4	MIDWEST	2.0	-1.6
5	NEW ENGLAND	1.9	-1.7
6	MID-ATLANTIC	1.8	-1.8

FOODSERVICE INDUSTRY FOOD-AND-DRINK SALES PROJECTED THROUGH 2009EATING PLACES MANAGED SERVICES6LODGING PLACES GROUP II—NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES10 GROUP III—MILITARY RESTAURANT SERVICES 14FOOTNOTES 1. Data are given only for establishments with payroll. 2. Waiter/waitress service is provided, and the order is taken while the patron is seated. Patrons pay after they eat. 3. Patrons generally order at a cash register or select items from a food bar and pay before they eat. 4. Formerly commercial cafeterias. 5. Food-and-drink sales for nonpayroll establishments should total $14,379,836,000. 6. Also referred to as on-site food-service and food contractors. 7. Includes drug- and proprietary-store restaurants; general-merchandise-store restaurants; variety-store restaurants; food-store restaurants and grocery-store restaurants, including a portion of delis and all salad bars; gasoline-service-station restaurants; and miscellaneous retailers. 8. Includes movies, bowling lanes, recreation and sport centers. 9. Includes sales of hot food, sandwiches, pastries, coffee and other hot beverages. 10. Business, educational, governmental or institutional organizations that operate their own restaurant services. 11. Includes industrial and commercial organizations, seagoing and inland-waterway vessels. 12. Includes voluntary and proprietary hospitals; long-term general, TB, nervous and mental hospitals; and sales or commercial equivalent to employees in state and local short-term hospitals and federal hospitals. 13. Sales (commercial equivalent) calculated for nursing homes and homes for the aged only. All others in this grouping make no charge for food served either in cash or in kind. 14. Continental United States only. SOURCE: NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION


GROUP I—COMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES1	2008 PROJECTED SALES ($000)	2009 PROJECTED SALES ($000)	’08-’09 PERCENT CHANGE	’08-’09 PERCENT REAL CHANGE**
Full-service restaurants2	$181,063,362	$182,873,996	1.0%	-2.5%
Limited-service (quick-service) restaurants3	157,456,626	163,754,891	4.0	0.4
Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets4	5,021,325	4,940,984	-1.6	-5.2
Social caterers	6,276,708	6,402,242	2.0	-1.6
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars	20,088,885	19,926,620	-0.8	-4.4
TOTAL EATING PLACES	$369,906,906	$377,898,733	2.2%	-1.4%
Bars and taverns	$16,632,146	$17,097,846	2.8	-0.4
TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES	$386,539,052	394,996,5795	2.2%	-1.3%
Manufacturing and industrial plants	$7,258,371	$7,373,927	1.6%	-2.0%
Commercial and office buildings	2,543,250	2,606,831	2.5	-1.1
Hospitals and nursing homes	4,511,960	4,818,773	6.8	3.2
Colleges and universities	11,912,863	12,913,543	8.4	4.5
Primary and secondary schools	5,255,883	5,602,771	6.6	3.0
In-transit restaurant services (airlines)	2,022,224	1,949,523	-3.6	-7.1
Recreation and sports centers	4,752,369	4,847,417	2.0	-1.5
TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES	$38,256,920	$40,112,785	4.9%	1.2%
Hotel restaurants	$26,931,904	$27,551,338	2.3%	-1.2%
Other accommodation restaurants	396,145	398,522	0.6	-3.0
TOTAL LODGING PLACES	$27,328,049	$27,949,860	2.3%	-1.2%
Retail-host restaurants7	$26,248,943	$27,590,792	5.1%	1.5%
Recreation and sports8	13,170,911	13,331,844	1.2	-2.3
Mobile caterers	1,014,868	1,013,671	-0.1	-3.7
Vending and nonstore retailers9	10,844,637	10,969,351	1.2	-1.7
TOTAL—GROUP I	$503,403,380	$515,964,882	2.5%	-1.0%
Employee restaurant services11	$463,150	$442,686	-4.4%	-7.5%
Public and parochial elementary, secondary schools	5,916,285	6,083,317	2.8	-0.8
Colleges and universities	5,811,296	5,749,996	-1.1	-5.3
Transportation	1,865,415	1,852,595	-0.7	-4.0
Hospitals12	14,482,181	15,114,014	4.4	1.4
Nursing homes, homes for the aged, blind, orphans and the mentally and physically disabled13	7,200,391	7,387,601	2.6	0.3
Clubs, sporting and recreational camps	9,041,143	9,091,877	0.6	-2.9
Community centers	1,963,027	2,057,252	4.8	2.6
TOTAL—GROUP II	$46,742,888	$47,779,338	2.2%	-1.0%
TOTAL—GROUPS I AND II	$550,146,268	$563,744,220	2.5%	-1.0%
Officers’ and NCO clubs (open mess)	$1,397,245	$1,460,122	4.5%	1.0%
Military exchanges	629,532	653,455	3.8%	0.2%
TOTAL—GROUP III	$2,026,777	$2,113,577	4.3%	0.8%
GRAND TOTAL	$552,173,045	$565,857,797	2.5%	-1.0%

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