Outlook 2008: High-costs, consumer cutbacks portend ‘08 woes

REGIONS RANKED BY TOTAL PROJECTED RESTAURANT SALES IN 2008


		SALES ($ BILLIONS)*
1	Southeast	$102.77
2	Midwest	$89.95
3	West	$78.10
4	Mid-Atlantic	$68.26
5	Southwest-Mountain	$65.83
6	New England	$23.95

REGIONS RANKED BY PERCENT CHANGE IN SALES FROM 2007 TO 2008*Includes sales at eating places and manage-drestaurant-services providers.** Real growth rates adjusted for the projected 3.6 percent menu price inflationSOURCE: NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION/NATION’S RESTAURANT NEWS


		NOMINAL % CHG.	REAL % CHG.**
1	Southwest-Mountain	5.8	2.2
2	Southeast	4.7	1.1
2	West	4.7	1.1
4	Mid-Atlantic	4.5	0.9
5	New England	4.1	0.5
6	Midwest	3.7	0.1

RESTAURANT INDUSTRY FOOD-AND-DRINK SALES PROJECTED THROUGH 2008EATING PLACES MANAGED SERVICES6 LODGING PLACES GROUP II—NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES10 GROUP III—NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES14FOOTNOTESData are given only for establishments with payroll.Waiter/waitress service is provided, and the order is taken while the patron is seated. Patrons pay after they eat.Patrons generally order at a cash register or select items from a food bar and pay before they eat.Formerly commercial cafeterias.Food-and-drink sales for non-payroll establishments should total $14,379,836,000.Also referred to as on-site food-service and food contractors.Includes drug- and proprietary-store restaurants, general-merchandise- store restaurants, variety-store restaurants, food-store restaurants and grocery-store restaurants (including a portion of delis and all salad bars), gasoline-service-station restaurants and miscellaneous retailers.Includes movies, bowling lanes, recreation and sport centers.Includes sales of hot food, sandwiches, pastries, coffee and other hot beverages.Business, educational, governmental or institutional organizations that operate their own restaurant services.Includes industrial and commercial organizations, seagoing and inland-waterway vessels.Includes voluntary and proprietary hospitals; long-term general, TB, nervous and mental hospitals; and sales or commercial equivalent to employees in state and local short-term hospitals and federal hospitals.Sales (commercial equivalent) calculated for nursing homes and homes for the aged only. All others in this grouping make no charge for food served either in cash or in kind.Continental United States only.SOURCE: NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION


GROUP I – COMMERCIAL REST. SERVICES1	2005 EST. F&D SALES ($000)	2007 PROJ. F&D SALES ($000)	2008 PROJ. F&D SALES ($000)	’07-’08 % CHG.	’07-’08 %REAL GROWTH CHG.	’03-’08 COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
Full-service restaurants2	$165,170,335	$179,679,723	$187,405,951	4.3%	0.7%	4.3%
Limited-service restaurants3	136,903,266	150,217,108	156,826,661	4.4	0.8	4.6
Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets4	5,022,802	5,168,313	5,116,630	-1.0	-4.6	0.6
Social caterers	5,281,527	6,052,439	6,451,900	6.6	3.0	6.9
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars	17,150,344	19,604,419	20,937,519	6.8	3.2	6.9
TOTAL EATING PLACES	$329,528,274	$360,722,002	$376,738,661	0.0%	0.8%	4.6%
Bars and taverns	15,001,593	15,961,485	16,456,291	3.1	-0.6	3.1
TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES	$344,529,867	$376,683,487	$393,194,9525	4.4%	0.8%	4.5%
Manufacturing and industrial plants	$6,570,196	$7,162,918	$7,400,824	3.3%	-0.3%	4.0%
Commercial and office buildings	2,225,724	2,458,528	2,564,245	4.3	0.7	4.8
Hospitals and nursing homes	3,575,006	4,154,103	4,461,507	7.4	3.8	7.7
Colleges and universities	9,282,579	10,949,312	11,908,253	8.8	4.7	8.7
Primary and secondary schools	4,184,106	4,848,634	5,178,341	6.8	3.2	7.4
In-transit restaurant services (airlines)	2,016,135	2,023,231	2,002,999	-1.0	-4.6	-0.2
Recreation and sports centers	4,176,436	4,565,112	4,765,977	4.4	0.8	4.5
TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES	$32,030,182	$36,161,838	$38,282,146	5.9%	2.1%	6.1%
Hotel restaurants	$23,474,378	$25,855,384	$27,174,009	5.1%	1.5%	5.0%
Other accommodation restaurants	379,977	406,967	424,060	4.2	0.6	3.7
TOTAL LODGING PLACES	$23,854,355	$26,262,351	$27,598,069	5.1%	1.5%	5.0%
Retail-host restaurants7	$22,501,949	$24,864,991	$26,154,477	5.2%	1.6%	5.1%
Recreation and sports8	11,397,195	12,735,094	13,226,094	3.9	0.2	5.1
Mobile caterers	914,062	999,014	1,027,985	2.9	-0.7	4.0
Vending and nonstore retailers9	9,781,278	10,583,925	10,946,626	3.4	0.8	3.8
TOTAL—GROUP I	$445,008,888	$488,290,700	$510,430,349	4.5%	0.9%	4.7%
Employee restaurant services11	$548,284	$471,767	$464,998	-1.4%	-4.0%	-5.3%
Public and parochial elementary, secondary schools	5,319,838	5,582,206	5,737,533	2.8	-0.8	2.6
Colleges and universities	5,687,262	5,812,734	5,869,925	1.0	-3.1	1.1
Transportation	1,561,242	1,756,803	1,838,585	4.7	1.9	5.6
Hospitals12	12,331,797	13,454,082	13,844,250	2.9	1.6	3.9
Nursing homes, homes for the aged, blind, orphans and the mentally and physically disabled13	6,264,498	6,851,324	7,077,418	3.3	1.3	4.2
Clubs, sporting and recreational camps	8,060,874	8,819,717	9,200,221	4.3	0.6	4.5
Community centers	1,642,370	1,786,452	1,841,832	3.1	1.1	3.9
TOTAL—GROUP II	$41,416,165	$44,535,085	$45,874,762	3.0%	0.4%	3.5%
TOTAL—GROUPS I AND II	$486,425,053	$532,825,785	$556,305,111	4.4%	0.9%	4.6%
Officers’ and NCO clubs (open mess)	$1,186,604	$1,303,252	$1,382,750	6.1%	2.5%	5.2%
Military exchanges	545,452	591,664	630,714	6.6	3.0	5.0
TOTAL—GROUP III	$1,732,056	$1,894,916	$2,013,464	6.3%	2.7%	5.1%
GRAND TOTAL	$488,157,109	$534,720,701	$558,318,575	4.4%	0.9%	4.6%

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