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Chipotle bucks all trends, analysts weigh in on future of industry star

Chipotle bucks all trends, analysts weigh in on future of industry star

DENVER Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

The operator of 730 fast-casual restaurants reported April 23 a 39-percent jump in first-quarter net income and a 29-percent increase in revenue. The Denver-based chain’s same-store sales came in at an awe-inducing 10.2 percent over last year. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

(To view charts featured on this week's financial pages, click here.) —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

Chipotle said increased customer visits, more locations and menu price increases helped its performance. The company also noted that its “unique bond” with consumers helped traffic remain positive, up 7 percent. Marty Moran, president and chief operating officer, said Chipotle’s success depends on the chain’s “focus on doing just a few things better than anyone else.” —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

For the three months ended March 31, Chipotle earned $17.3 million, or 52 cents per share, versus year-ago earnings of $12.4 million, or 38 cents per share. Latest-quarter revenue totaled $305.3 million. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

Analysts discussed whether the company could continue its growth surge. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

Jeff Farmer Jefferies & Co. Inc. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

Chipotle said it now expects food costs to increase this year by 0.4 percentage points, or 40 basis points, which Farmer estimated as a “7-cents-per-share headwind.” Chipotle has contracted its tortillas and cheese prices, but rice, avocado and proteins are expected to drive the cost pressures, Farmer said. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

With same-store sales moderating and additional stock-based compensation taken in the second half of the year, Farmer lowered his full-year estimate by 4 cents per share. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

“We acknowledge that 2008 outlook has a hair or two,” he said, “but we’re sticking with our thesis that a growing fundamental outperformance in current environment will continue to merit premium valuation on shares.” —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

Steven Rees J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

New-unit volumes in Chipotle’s newer markets, which will account for about 10 percent of development this year, are lower than system averages, Rees said. New units in developing markets average sales of $1 million to $1.1 million, below the overall average for new units of between $1.35 million and $1.4 million and the system average unit volume of $1.77 million. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

“We will continue to closely monitor new-unit volume and [same-store sales] trends,” he said, “but are not yet overly concerned given apparently strong [same-store sales] in new markets and attractive cash-on-cash returns.” Rees estimated Chipotle’s cash return totals between 28 percent and 36 percent. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

Rees raised his full-year, per-share earnings estimate by 5 cents. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

John Glass Morgan Stanley & Co. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

Glass said Chipotle’s results could level off with continued pressures on food costs and increased stock-based compensation in the later half of the year. Margin expansion opportunities “are more limited going forward,” he added, and same-store sales “appear to be moderating” to mid-single digits. —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

“Chipotle’s results were still outstanding, with the best same-store sales and operating margins in the industry for a company-owned model,” he said. “Even as [same-store sales] moderate, [they] are better than peers and new-store growth and new-store productivity remain healthy.” —An operating environment made difficult by the dual blows of surging costs and fewer customers forced many companies to report declining profits and sluggish sales in the first quarter. Not so for

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